CE Energy Insight – September 2020
In a discussion last week, our previous post on energy efficiency came up. I was asked the following question: “Which renewable energy needs to be adopted for our daily energy needs?” At that moment, I realized that there quality knowledge on energy consumption is lacking. There is also little information on energy switching options. Or the complexity associated with this transition. Here then is a brief primer on energy consumption, the complexity of energy switching, and our top picks for energy switching options. We’re interested in hearing what you think!
Consumption Today
Energy consumption occurs broadly across three spectra – thermal, transportation and electricity. Thermal energy accounts for 50% of global energy consumption (IEA). Transportation accounts for a further 25% (EIA), while electricity makes up 18%. The electricity sector has been quick to adopt renewable energy technologies. Yet global energy demand continues to be weighted towards fossil fuels primarily because of where consumption occurs. For large-scale decarbonization to occur, there must be a shift in the transportation and thermal sectors. It’s also important to note that decarbonization may not mean the outright elimination of carbon. So how can energy switching occur in each of these areas?
Energy Switching – Thermal
Many jurisdictions have banned the further development of coal plants. Others have actually closed down coal plants even before their normal retirement age. A question that comes up is what to do with those plants. In addition, how can the high heating coefficient of coal be replaced? Oil is also – if rarely – used for heating. This occurs particularly in colder (and more northern) areas, as well as in many oil-rich countries. Finally, there are questions about how to manage waste in many developed and emerging economies. We combine these scenarios to rank our preferred energy switching options for heating:
- Biomass – coal plants can be repurposed as biomass plants (Ontario, Canada has done this). It’s important that these plants use renewable biomass feedstock.
- Geothermal – Iceland has done this already. Canada, Russia, Australia and the United States have massive geothermal potential. This is the long-range play.
- Natural Gas – assuming a solution can be found for methane leaks. From a carbon-reduction standpoint, replacing coal plants with natural gas boilers will save billions of tons of CO2 emissions.
- Other wildcard options – nuclear waste heat, solar heating (very limited potential, in our opinion), heat pumps (can this be more wide-scale?).
Energy Switching – Transportation
Outside of electricity, this is the other consumption category that has received the most attention from a technological innovation standpoint. Several European countries have announced bans on the sale of new fossil-fuel internal combustion cars over the next decade. Marine and air transport have been spared (so far). Still, there is an intense battle to discover the next fuel for our human desire to explore by air, sea and land.
- Electric batteries – already a proven technology, but not affordable for most of the world’s population. Key to its global adoption will be the development of higher capacity batteries as well as cost affordability. Other external factors to consider include grid reliability and the source of electricity generation.
- Hydrogen – still in development. Considered the long-term play for transport as it’s perceived to be an easier transition for marine and aviation than electric batteries.
- Liquified Biomethane – still in development. Another long-term play that combines the need for eliminating waste (via biogas) with an avoidance of the ethical issues surrounding ethanol and other plant-based biofuels. Higher processing requirements may mean more energy, however.
- Wildcards – Ethanol (not our preferred approach, especially in a world where food poverty remains an issue), algae (too limited, potentially unsustainable).
Energy Switching – Electricity
Storage is the biggest question in this space. Lack of storage prevents deployment of variable renewable energies as baseload power. Grid infrastructure is also a challenge in several countries. We believe nuclear energy should remain an option, but recommend that developers and regulators consider the full costs of nuclear waste disposal.
- Solar – not optimal everywhere, efficient storage for nighttime still an issue. However, quick to deploy and easy energy switch overall.
- Biomass – similar to heating, effective replacement for coal-powered electricity, as long as it’s from renewable biomass.
- Hydroelectric – in our opinion, hydroelectricity is very underrated. It should be a large part of the baseload mix for any sustainable electricity model.
- Wildcards – Nuclear power (lots of angst around nuclear safety. Biggest concern is waste disposal/re-purposing), wind power (similar to solar in its limitations, and not as versatile in deployment).
Final Comments
Now you’ve seen our picks for energy switching options, we’d like to know what you think! Feel free to post a comment with your picks for energy switching options.
The main things to keep in mind when considering an energy switch are the long-term sustainability impacts, as well as a sense of where regulations and technology are headed.
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